Tyler Hansbrough is one of the best college basketball players of our generation. He has a real shot of going in the lottery in tonight's NBA Draft. But questions abound as to whether he will ever be a successful pro - he's too short, he's not athletic enough, he doesn't have enough post moves, he can't defend.
How about this one: he's white.
Now, before you go all Jason Whitlock on me, I did some research and put together a list of all the white, collegiate players picked in the top 14 picks (equivalent to this year's lottery) in the last 20 years. Out of that group, just three guys (Christian Laettner, Tom Gugliotta, and Wally Szczerbiak) made an all-star team, and each of them made it just once (although, Kevin Love might change that).
So what point am I trying to make here? Well, I don't know. I'm nowhere near mathematically proficient enough to figure out if the percentages significantly differ between white lottery picks and black lottery picks being busts. But what I can tell you is that the info after the jump is pretty interesting ... to me at least.
(Big h/t to BIAH contributor Scott Klatzkin)
2008:
Picked after them: Courtney Lee (22), Mario Chalmers (34)
2007:
Picked after him: Thaddeus Young (12), Rodney Stuckey (15), Rudy Fernandez (24), Aaron Brooks (26)
2006:
Picked after them: #6 Brandon Roy, #21 Rajon Rondo, #47 Paul Millsap
2005:
Picked after him: #3 Deron Williams, #4 Chris Paul, #10 Andrew Bynum, #17 Danny Granger
2004 (2004 was a bad year for the caucasian persuasion):
Picked after them: #15 Al Jefferson, #17 Josh Smith, #18 JR Smith, #20 Jameer Nelson, #26 Kevin Martin, #43 Trevor Ariza
2003 (to be fair, this is the one year where it is tough to hate on any of these picks - 2003 was a loaded draft):
Picked after them: #18 David West, #29 Josh Howard, #47 Mo Williams
2002:
Picked after him: #9 Amare Stoudamire, #10 Caron Butler, #23 Tayshaun Prince, #34 Carlos Boozer
2001:
Picked after him: #19 Zack Randolph, #25 Gerald Wallace, #28 Tony Parker, #31 Gilbert Arenas, #34 Mehmut Okur
2000 (this draft was horrendous overall - Stromile Swift, Darius Miles, Marcus Fizer, DeMarr Johnson, Jerome Moiso, Etan Thomas, and Courtney Alexander all were lottery picks):
Picked after them: #8 Jamal Crawford, #16 Hedo Turkoglu, #19 Jamaal Magloire, #43 Michael Redd
1999:
Picked after him: #7 Rip Hamilton, #9 Shawn Marion, #16 Ron Artest, #24 Andrei Kirilenko
1998:
Picked after them: #4 Antawn Jamison, #5 Vince Carter, #9 Dirk Nowitzki, #10 Vince Carter, #21 Ricky Davis, #25 Al Harrington, #32 Rashard Lewis, #39 Rafer Alston
1997:
Picked after them: #3 Chauncey Billups, #9 Tracy McGrady, #23 Bobby Jackson, #43 Stephen Jackson
1996:
Picked after him: #13 Kobe Bryant, #14 Peja Stojakovic, #15 Steve Nash, #17 Jermaine O'Neal, #20 Zydrunas Ilgauskas, #24 Derek Fisher
1995:
Picked after them: #7 Damon Stoudamire, #18 Theo Ratliff, #21 Michael Finley
1994:
Picked after him: #10 Eddie Jones, #13 Jalen Rose
1993:
Picked after them: #3 Penny Hardaway, #4 Jamal Mashburn, #8 Vin Baker, #11 Allan Houston, #24 Sam Cassell, #37 Nick Van Exel
1992:
Picked after them: #4 Jim Jackson, #11 Robert Horry, #24 Latrel Spreewell, #29 PJ Brown
1991:
Picked after them: #11 Terrell Brandon, #13 Dale Davis, #16 Chris Gatling, #24 Rick Fox
1990:
Picked after him: #13 Loy Vaught, #21 Jayson Williams, #29 Toni Kukoc, #45 Antonio Davis, #48 Cedric Ceballos
1989:
Picked after him: #3 Sean Elliot, #4 Glen Rice, #14 Tim Hardaway, #17 Shawn Kemp, #26 Vlade Divac, #36 Cliff Robinson
Posts
4 months ago
6 comments:
I love the subject, but does it really make sense to just mention a few of the dudes that were picked later that ended up doing well. There were plenty of players picked later that weren't as good. Little bit of a self serving bias with those points.
You're 100% right about the self-serving bias. If this was an academic study, there would be all kinds of flaws with the info (like I mentioned in the post, is the % of white players that turn into busts any different than the percentage of black players of Europeans?).
Since I live in Dallas. Dirk may be foreign but he's still white
why aren't latin players included in this study? I feel that the percentage of latin players drafted into the nba have an extremely high success rate i.e. Carlos Arroyo, Rudy Fernandez, Pau Gausol, Al Horford, Manu Ginobli, Eduardo Najera, "Nene", Anderson Varejao, Leandro Barbosa, Jose Calderon, etc. and that's just off the top of my drunk head
Just sayin...if I were an NBA GM I would draft a team of entirely Latin players.
what about reggie miller? he made a ton of all star teams
ross....5 is not a ton. marc....if you drafted latin players only youd be a dumb fuck and fired.
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