With the NBA Draft lottery taking place last night, BIAH contributor -- and Jon Diebler's doppelganger -- Scottie Klatzkin is back in full force with his NBA mock draft.
Over the first decade of the new century, there were only two genuine NBA Draft debates of who should be the first pick.
After the historic 2003 NBA Draft that put us on a first name basis with future hall of famers LeBron, Carmelo and Dwyane (he may be recognized by his first name, but how many people can spell it correctly?), 2004 brought on the big man debate. NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player, Emeka Okafor, versus Gatorade High School Player of the Year, Dwight Howard. Okafor went #2 and won the 2005 Rookie of the Year. But six years, two Defensive Player of the Year Awards, one Eastern Conference Championship, and zero offensive post moves later, Howard has had the better career.
Then in 2007 came Greg Oden vs. Kevin Durant. Should Portland take the brittle, 48 year old freshman that sat out the first month of his only college season with a wrist injury and battled foul trouble throughout the NCAA Tournament, or should they take the 19 year old National Player of the Year with the 7'4" wingspan that can score from any location on the court? With the 1st pick in the 2007 NBA Draft, the Portland Trailblazers took Benjamin Button. The Blazers management must’ve found a leftover stash of that good shit that Rasheed Wallace and Darius Miles left behind before draft night. And although Oden's internet showmanship could allow for an easy transition of careers, making him this generation's Lexington Steele, it's the #2 pick that has already become one of the Top 5 players in the league.
This draft won't be so difficult. Just as Evan Turner became the consensus National Player of the Year choice as the end of the season came closer, John Wall has become the consensus #1 pick as the draft gets closer.
Despite having only a 12 percent chance of winning the lottery, the Wizards will choose first. (Can we please fix the lottery? 4 teams with the worst record have ever gotten the pick they deserve. My Boston Celtics would be on Championship 22 by now if they got the pick they rightfully earned in 1997. The NBA doesn’t have to make it an NFL style format that gives the worst team the first pick, but at the very least increase the odds. 40% for the worst record, 25% for the second worst, 15% for third and divide the last 20% amongst the remaining 11 teams. If your team is one of the worst 3 in the league then you suffered for an entire season and deserve the best shot at getting a franchise changer.) We know Wall will be shaking Stern's hand first, but here is an early prediction at how the first round should shape up:
1. Washington Wizards – John Wall – Kentucky – 19 yrs old – PG
Who was more upset after the 3rd pick was announced to New Jersey – Mikhail Prokhorov or John Wall? On one hand you have the 19 year old phenom, Wall, who was brought to Kentucky by master recruiter, John Calipari, and probably arrived in Lexington to a Ricky Roe gym bag and a Jesus Shuttlesworth-esque dorm room tour with Patrick Patterson playing the role of Rick Fox (two of my favorite scenes from two of my favorite basketball movies). He must have been dreaming of heading to New Jersey where Prokhorov would provide the same type of reception by making it rain rubles and introducing Wall to the new "assistant coaches" – Sofia, Irina, Natalia and whatever other prostitutes he has left over from his 2007 arrest.
On the other hand you have Prokhorov, who earlier in the day released a video proclaiming New Jersey would win a championship within the next 5 years (Did you see that video? The guy sounded like Borat describing what he would do if his wife ever cheated on him – "Eef ainy othar team try to sign LeBrawn James… I will crush them!"). Was he so far off? With a lineup of John Wall, whoever you get in a Devin Harris trade, LeBron James, Free Agent PF (Bosh, Nowitzki, Stoudemire, Boozer) and Future All-Star Brook Lopez, you could argue that they would have an immediate shot to win it next season. Without Wall or even Turner, his best hope for LBJ is that he has a secret urge to record an album with Jay-Z.
As for the actual team that won the pick, Wall will allow the Wizards to move Arenas to shooting guard (there's a gun joke in there somewhere) or trade him altogether.
2. Philadelphia 76ers – Evan Turner – Ohio State – 21 yrs old – SG
This will be the 76ers third time selecting at the #2 spot in the last 17 years. In 1993 Philadelphia selected Shawn Bradley and in 1997 they chose Keith Van Horn. If you ate bean burritos with a side of prunes for a week straight, you still wouldn’t be able to produce a worse #2 than the Sixers. With that lovely picture fresh in your mind, though, I'll say that I think it will be difficult for the 76ers to miss with this pick this time around. Evan Turner is not the best athlete in this draft and Derrick Favors may even be a better fit for this current Sixers team that needs help up front, but Turner was by far the best player in college basketball this past season. A Turner pick here will allow the Sixers to shop the league’s worst go-to-player, Andre Iguodala.
3. New Jersey Nets – Derrick Favors – Georgia Tech – 18 yrs old – PF
Obviously the Nets had their sights set on a certain Kentucky freshman, but this Georgia Tech freshman is not a bad consolation prize. With Wall, the Nets would have gotten an NBA ready Rookie of the Year front runner and a strong pitch for Bron-Bron, but I wouldn't count the Nets out of the sweepstakes just yet. With Favors, you have a raw talent that I believe will have a better NBA career than the man picked a spot ahead of him, Evan Turner. The Nets will also have the best young front court in the NBA, while playing in the East, which doesn't have great big men. Is a Devin Harris, Free Agent SG (Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Michael Redd), LeBron, Favors, Lopez lineup really that far behind what the team would have looked like with the first pick? I don’t think so. Am I just running different scenarios in my head so that I won't be as mad about the draft lottery process and the fact that LeBron will not be playing for my favorite rapper next season? Most likely.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves – Wesley Johnson – Syracuse – 22 yrs old - SF
After selecting Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn, and Ty Lawson with three of the first 18 picks in last season's draft, I fully expect the Timberwolves to grab Levance Fields with their top pick this season. Don't want to let any 2009 Cousy Award Finalists get away. If the Wolves decide that they have enough point guards to last them awhile, then they will look to fill a void at small forward. Wesley Johnson will not be a superstar in this league, but could come in and contribute right away on a team that is starting to build a strong young nucleus. If Ricky Rubio ever decides to come over to the USA, then this team could be a 2011 lottery pick away from making a playoff push in a few years.
5. Sacramento Kings – DeMarcus Cousins – Kentucky – 19 yrs old – C
The hilarity of DeMarcus Cousins has been well documented throughout his freshman season, but NBA GMs may not be laughing too hard when it comes to evaluating Cousins' work ethic and overall stability. At best, I see Cousins as a Derrick Coleman type (minus the bankruptcy) that can contribute for a long time and could possibly peak with an All-Star selection or two, but never quite reaching his potential. At worst I see Cousins as an Eddy Curry type (minus the gay sexual harassment allegations) that could be out of the league in a few years.
Anytime a player is described as "Derrick Coleman-like at best", there should be more red flags waving than an Ivan Drago pep rally. As much as I like DeMarcus Cousins the person, I just can't see the pros outweighing the cons when it comes to his NBA career. (I only wrote that last statement to bring up the following point: After it came to light that Tiger Woods was banging more white girls with daddy issues than Greg Entner (look it up if you need to), it should no longer be legal to use the term "he's a good guy" about professional athletes that you have not ever met in real life. For all I know and assume, good guys Peyton Manning and Derek Jeter both pay the cast of "Little People, Big World" to dress as Oompa-Loompa's and sing songs while they pour bottles of G2 Gatorade on them and laugh. Is that extreme? Indeed it is, but if someone would have told you in 2008 that Eldrick "Tiger" Woods would spend his free time texting porn stars about golden showers and club sandwiches without turkey, you would have scoffed in disbelief and disgust, too. Bottom line – New Rule: If you don't actually know an athlete on a personal level, I don't want to hear how good of a person he or she is.)
6. Golden State Warriors – Al-Farouq Aminu – Wake Forest – 19 yrs old – SF
The Warriors were originally projected to select 4th, and with that pick Golden State would be looking for DeMarcus Cousins or Derrick Favors to slip. At 6th, Cousins could still be on the board, but Favors will undoubtedly be gone. With Cousins being taken a spot ahead in this mock, that leaves a decision to take Aminu or go a little bigger with a guy like Ed Davis or Greg Monroe. Aminu didn't have an eye-popping first two seasons, but Wake Forest guys have been uber-successful in the NBA lately. Tim Duncan is the best power forward of all-time, Chris Paul is the best point guard in the NBA, Eric Williams' wife has the best nickname on VH1's "Basketball Wives", and Randolph Childress has the best cross-over-taunt-jumper sequence in ACC history. I'm not exactly sure what Aminu will be best at in the NBA (perhaps the best at making airline security double check that his name isn't on the No-Fly List), but he's athletic and talented enough that he should be a solid player that can guard multiple positions in the league.
7. Detroit Pistons – Greg Monroe – Georgetown – 19 yrs old – PF
Detroit Basketball is in big need of some help in the front court and should count their lucky stars if/when Greg Monroe is still around at 7th. Monroe has the potential to be one of those guys that slips to the bottom of the Top 10 and makes teams wish they would have grabbed him earlier. Think Amare Stoudemire in 2002, Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce in 1998, Tracy McGrady in 1997, etc. I'm in no way, shape, or form putting Monroe in the class of those superstars, but I do have a feeling that if the G-Town sophomore drops to the 7-10 range of this draft that there are going to be a lot of teams shaking their heads a few years from now when Monroe is having a better career than most in this draft class.
8. Los Angeles Clippers – Cole Aldrich – Kansas – 21 yrs old C
They're going to do it.
They're going to do it because they are the Clippers.
Don't say I didn't warn them.
The Scott Klatzkin Tall White Lottery Pick Theory (patent pending) is a fool proof system that, if followed, will prevent NBA GMs from ruining their lottery selections on tall, unathletic Caucasians. White, American born college basketball players that play Power Forward or Center will be absolute busts in the NBA if selected in the lottery. It's science. If the TWLP Theory continues to hold true, Cole Aldrich will not average double digit points or rebounds for his career and although he will most likely be a solid 8th man for several years, there may be an All-Star potential player or two still left on the board that should go ahead of him.
We touched on the Tall White Lottery Pick Theory last season, but the two major points are as follows:
The Clippers are looking for depth at Center and with the possibility of Rudy Gay or another wing coming via free agency this summer, they will most likely go big and take Aldrich despite the fact that he looks like he's throwing a soccer inbound pass every time he shoots a free throw. Basically, what I'm trying to tell the Clippers and to you is that the next time you are picking teams for a run and the two players left are the white guy you don't know and the black guy you don't know – take the black guy. If some asshole yells out "why, because he's black?" Say "Yes. That’s exactly why" and check the ball.
9. Utah Jazz – Ed Davis – North Carolina – 20 yrs old - PF
(Ed. Note: If the next paragragh doesn't tip you off, Scottie is a die hard Duke fan. Yes, I hate him as well.) Drunk heckler Brian King felt more welcome around Roy Williams' bench this season than Ed Davis. I'm honestly surprised that the miserable sophomore was able to make it the entire season without packing his bags out of Chapel Hill. I can't think of another player to wear Tar Heel blue that was happier to see a season end. His decision to enter the NBA Draft came faster than Jason Biggs in American Pie.
Think of all the problems Davis had to endure during his sophomore year. First, he has the wrist injury. Add to that he's got to share a front court with dorky dick Tyler Zeller, who was undoubtedly always begging Davis to join him in a game of Dungeons & Dragons or a viewing of Battlestar Galactica. Plus you've got the California-bred Wear twins walking around the locker room singing Beach Boys tunes and watching repeats of California Dreams (one of the best theme songs of my childhood, though. After Saved by the Bell's gem, California Dreams' "Don't wake me uppppp" has got to rank in the 90's Top 5). And finally you've got to think it was hard for Davis to sleep with the constant sound of John Henson across the hall throwing up his dinner in order to stay America's Next Top Model thin. (Somewhere in Sacramento, Sean May has just gone in to shock. "You mean to tell me that someone is wasting UNC Dining Hall food? It's delicious! I used to swipe my card and then steal Rashad McCants student ID so I could get seconds after my nap. It's a good thing McCants is now working at the Chic-Fil-A in the mall, because now I can get all the food I want, all the time.")
If Davis were in a different situation, he may have stayed another season and would have benefited from doing so, but he’s still a Top 10 pick and will be asked to replace Carlos Boozer at the 4 spot once he leaves for free agency.
10. Indiana Pacers – Ekpe Udoh – Baylor – 22 yrs old – PF
Ekpe Udoh will be a great defensive presence to play alongside of Roy Hibbert and I am hoping that the Pacers are able to take him and fight off every urge to take Final Four sweetheart Gordon Hayward. (Why would Indiana think about taking Hayward when they already have Danny Granger at small forward? Well, the hometown hero would certainly sell some jerseys, but more so because I honestly think it is Larry Bird's goal to build the first all white NBA team since 1949. I've seen more African-Americans on swim teams than on the Pacers roster. How pissed off is Bird going to be when Cole Aldrich gets taken before he picks?)
Udoh makes sense here even though won't be the franchise changer that Pacers lottery good luck charm Danny Granger was hoping to grab (Did anyone see Granger’s reaction when the Pacers’ envelope was revealed and they didn’t move up? He looked more disappointed than Shawn Kemp’s kids hoping that dad would be around for their birthday), but I wouldn't count out Aldrich, Hayward, Luke Babbit, Jon Scheyer, Michael Doleac, Gerry McNamara or Bobby Hurley with this pick.
11. New Orleans Hornets – James Anderson – Oklahoma State – 21 yrs old – SG
The best scorer in college basketball last season may have been James Anderson and he can immediately help out a Hornets team that will be looking to get back to the playoffs in 2011. New Orleans also needs help at the center position, but it's a little too high to grab Daniel Orton or Hassan Whiteside. Anderson, though, could probably be grabbed a few picks down, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Hornets either dropped down or dangled Darren Collison to see if they can move up and get a better big man.
12. Memphis Grizzlies – Donatas Motiejunas – Lithuania – 19 yrs old – PF
Foreign big guys have done very well in the Grizzlies system, either used to contribute for Memphis (Marc Gasol) or used to gift wrap a championship for Jerry West’s former team in one of the most lopsided trades in NBA history (Pau Gasol – I would go more in depth as to how unfair and obvious this trade was to help out the Lakers, but Kevin McHale gave the Celtics Kevin Garnett a few years back so I can’t be as upset). Since the Grizzlies have some quality players in the frontcourt already (Randolph, Gasol step forward, Thabeet not talking about you) they can allow the Lithuanian to develop a little more overseas before coming to the league.
13. Toronto Raptors – Hassan Whiteside – Marshall – 21 yrs old – C
A 21 year old Freshman? How cool was this kid at Marshall? Not only was he the nation's leading shot blocker after coming out of relatively nowhere to become a lottery pick, he was also the only first year student that could make liquor runs for his dorm mates! Ok, that's not fair, actually. First off, Whiteside will turn 21 in June, before the draft, so he wasn't exactly making runs to the liquor store this school year. Secondly, we are kidding ourselves if we think you have to be 21 years of age to buy alcohol in West Virginia.
This 7'0" rookie may need a drink himself, though, when he finds he has to move to Canada to fill the shoes of Chris Bosh. Whiteside is a raw player with only a few years of high school and one year of college ball, but is long (DRINK!) and has a ton of upside (SHOT!... Oh, sorry, I’m just excited for another year of the Jay Bilas NBA Draft Drinking Game). He will allow Andrea Bargnani to move to power forward while he holds down the middle.
14. Houston Rockets – Daniel Orton – Kentucky – 19 yrs old – C
For a kid that played behind Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins and barely made a dent in the box score at Kentucky, a lottery selection is not too shabby. Apparently this kid has a lot of potential that he was unable to showcase during the season at Kentucky and with the Rockets in need of backup for Yao Ming, Orton is the best of the centers that are left.
The rest of the 1st Round:
15. Milwaukee Bucks – Gordon Hayward – Butler – 20 yrs old – SF
16. Minnesota Timberwolves – Luke Babbit – Nevada – 20 yrs old – SF
17. Chicago Bulls – Xavier Henry – Kansas – 19 yrs old – SG
18. Miami Heat – Eric Bledsoe – Kentucky – 20 yrs old – PG
19. Boston Celtics – Avery Bradley – Texas – 19 yrs old – SG
20. San Antonio Spurs – Patrick Patterson – Kentucky – 21 yrs old – PF
21. Oklahoma City Thunder – Damion James – Texas – 22 yrs old – SF
22. Portland Trailblazers – Larry Sanders – VCU – 21 yrs old – C
23. Minnesota Timberwolves – Kevin Seraphin – France – 20 yrs old – PF
24. Atlanta Hawks – Stanley Robinson – UCONN – 21 yrs old – SF
25. Memphis Grizzlies – Quincy Pondexter – Washington – 22 yrs old – SF
26. Oklahoma City Thunder – Solomon Alabi – Florida State – 22 yrs old – C
27. New Jersey Nets – Jordan Crawford – Xavier – 21 yrs old – SG
28. Memphis Grizzlies – Devin Ebanks – West Virginia – 20 yrs old – SF
29. Orlando Magic – Terrico White – Mississippi – 20 yrs old – SG
30. Washington Wizards – Craig Brackins – Iowa State – 22 yrs old - PF
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